San Francisco Real Estate 2026: How Today’s Market Stacks Up to the 2021 Boom

San Francisco’s median home price has climbed back to $1.3 million as of July, according to fresh numbers from the California Association of Realtors — an echo of the city’s 2021 boom but under much different conditions.

Why does this matter right now? After nearly four years of churn — a pandemic, a tech market shakeout, then soaring interest rates — many homeowners and would-be buyers want to know if San Francisco is headed back into bubble territory, or if today’s recovery is built on more stable foundations.

Pacific Heights Steadies, Dogpatch Surges

On the ground, the market’s complexion has changed since those frenzied 2021 months. In traditionally high-priced enclaves like Pacific Heights and the Marina, Compass data shows detached homes are still fetching a premium — four-bedroom Victorians along Broadway are routinely listed above $6 million. Further south, the once-sleepy Dogpatch neighborhood has seen listing volume jump nearly 18% since spring, fueled by mid-career tech employees and a spate of new luxury condo projects on Indiana Street.

The Mission District is also back in play. According to Redfin, its median condo price hit $1.07 million in June, up 9% year-over-year after a long lull. Unlike 2021, when anything with open space was bid up instantly, the current market has become increasingly segmented: single-family homes in Noe Valley or Sea Cliff often sit for weeks, while well-priced two-bedroom condos in South Beach go pending in a weekend.

Condos Outpace Houses, Tech Reignites Demand

Hard data backs up these shifts. In June 2021 — the peak of the last cycle — San Francisco’s median price hit $1.18 million, with fierce overbidding across all property types. By summer 2023, that median dipped to $1.19 million as mortgage rates soared above 6%, and sales volume stalled. Fast-forward to July 2026: the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is holding at 5.3%, and the city’s median now outpaces 2021 by over $100,000. Condo transactions have risen 23% year-on-year, the San Francisco Association of Realtors reports, while detached home sales are flat.

"Demand is still there, but buyers are choosier," says a local real estate analyst, who points to companies like OpenAI and Stripe ramping up hiring — especially in their Mission Bay and South Financial District offices. Tech’s return is pulling both renters and buyers back into the city, especially those seeking walkability near Chase Center or quick access to Caltrain and Muni lines.

Looking Ahead: Savvy Moves in a Hot Summer

Inventory remains tight. As of this week, San Francisco had just 925 active residential listings, compared to nearly 1,450 on the market in July 2021. Brokers expect summer to remain competitive for buyers with strong financing or all-cash offers, particularly in neighborhoods bordering tech hubs or with easy access to Dolores Park and the Embarcadero. Buyers are advised to get pre-approved and act fast on move-in ready units below the median price, especially as the busiest open house weekends approach.

For sellers, agents with Polaris Realty suggest that preparing for a sale takes longer than it did in 2021, when staging and inspections were often afterthoughts. Detailed disclosures and targeted digital marketing remain critical, especially as some buyers pause to see if further Federal Reserve rate cuts materialize. But compared to the wild west energy of the pandemic peak, today’s market is showing signs of a more disciplined — if still expensive — recovery.