San Francisco Housing Market in 2026: How Far We've Come from the 2021 Boom

San Francisco’s median home price reached $1.3 million in June 2026, closing the gap with 2021’s pandemic-era records but revealing a market with very different dynamics beneath the surface.

The city’s real estate market has been thrust back into the spotlight as buyers and sellers alike recall the ultra-competitive bidding wars and sight-unseen offers of five years ago. In contrast, today’s activity signals a more balanced market, despite tech-driven demand and a resurgent condo sector echoing some familiar themes.

Pandemic Peaks vs. 2026 Plateau

For longtime agents in Pacific Heights, the current mood is a far cry from the spring of 2021, when a four-bedroom on Broadway regularly drew more than a dozen all-cash offers. While the Pacific Heights and Marina neighborhoods remain at a premium—median sale prices rose to $2.97 million for single-family homes in May, according to MLS data—the fevered sense of desperation seen during the COVID boom has cooled. 'There’s strong interest, but buyers walk away if a listing’s overpriced or underprepared,' said one agent who has worked the district for two decades.

Meanwhile, neighborhoods like the Mission and Dogpatch are seeing renewed traction, not just with remote workers, but also younger buyers lured back by improvements along Valencia Street and new Dogpatch parks near Pier 70. Startups expanding footprints in SoMa and biotech growth at UCSF’s Mission Bay campus are both credited with fueling demand. Yet compared to 2021, far fewer homes are changing hands—across San Francisco, closed sales in the first half of 2026 are down 28% versus the frenzy of early 2021, data from Compass show.

Different Market Mechanics

The rebalancing is clearest in the condo sector. In 2021, new towers near South Beach and Yerba Buena Gardens were slow to move, with remote workers leaving the city and investors seeking bigger spaces in the suburbs. Now, with the tech jobs base stabilizing and buyers facing high interest rates, competition for two-bedroom units at projects like Mira on Folsom or the Avery on Main Street has returned. Prices have climbed back within 5% of their 2021 peak, averaging $1.17 million in May citywide, according to the San Francisco Association of Realtors.

But the buyer profile is different. Mortgage rates averaging 6.4%, according to Bankrate, deter the bidding sprees of 2021’s sub-3% era. “Buyers are more selective and price conscious. We’re seeing careful contingencies, not the all-or-nothing gambles of five years ago,” observed a prominent broker working in Hayes Valley and the Richmond.

What Buyers and Sellers Should Expect

So what’s next? The city is entering the back half of 2026 with more homes hitting the market and open house traffic robust, especially around tech hubs south of Market. Experts with the independent brokerage Polaris forecast a late-summer increase in listings, as homeowners take advantage of strong equity gains and stabilized prices. Still, with city homeownership rates lagging Bay Area suburbs—just 36% in San Francisco, per 2026 US Census updates—competition remains heavy for move-in ready single family homes in Noe Valley and Glen Park.

Agents recommend prospective buyers get pre-approval locked in early and focus on neighborhoods seeing fresh minority growth or public amenity investment, such as the new Dolores Park playground extension. Sellers, meanwhile, are advised not to overplay their hands—the days of easy windfalls are gone. In short: this market looks like a high plateau, not another rocket launch. For both sides, precise pricing and patience are key as San Francisco moves forward, navigating a market still shaped by the lessons—and scars—of its wild 2021 ride.