San Francisco Real Estate: 2026’s Steady Rebound vs. the Fevered 2021 Boom

Median home values across San Francisco are rising again, with June’s figure hitting $1.3 million—a full 11% above last summer, but still below the eye-popping heights of the 2021 pandemic-fueled boom. That year, record-low mortgage rates, tech IPO windfalls, and a rush of remote workers pushed median prices above $1.5 million. This time, local agents say, the surge feels more measured—and markedly different in flavor.

Beyond the Pandemic Frenzy

Why does this shift matter in 2026? The Bay Area’s last cycle was defined by buyers jostling for Dolores Heights Victorians at $500,000 over asking, and blocks of Marina condos snapped up in days. After interest rates jumped and layoffs rocked Silicon Valley in 2022, sellers retreated and prices dropped more than 15% citywide by late 2023. Today’s climate, with the Federal Reserve holding rates steady at 5.25% since last fall, has ushered in a fresh chapter: healthy demand, but cooled expectations.

The impact is obvious in neighborhoods with divergent trajectories. In March, a four-bedroom home on Sacramento Street in Pacific Heights closed for $4.7 million—up $400,000 from its 2023 sale price, but far less than a similar property fetched during the 2021 peak. Meanwhile, in Dogpatch, average condo listing times are down to 18 days, thanks in part to initiatives like the San Francisco Affordable Homeownership Program, which helped bolster interest from first-time buyers this spring. Compass data shows active listings are up 22% in the Mid-Market corridor compared to a year ago, attracting a mix of tech returnees and longtime renters now eyeing ownership.

Stats Tell the Story: Steady, Not Superheated

According to the San Francisco Association of Realtors, June’s median price citywide landed at $1.3 million—even with the upticks in Pacific Heights and Noe Valley. Back in 2021, citywide medians peaked at $1.58 million, with some single-family homes in Presidio Heights cresting $7 million or more. The difference today: while open houses on Lake Street are once again drawing crowds, the bidding wars and all-cash offers have cooled. Condo sales, which lagged after remote work’s heyday faded, are trending back—especially south of Market Street. The number of closed sales in the Mission ticked up to 74 in May, a 16% jump since December, but still 30% lower than 2021’s tally for the same stretch.

Price per square foot tells a similar story. The luxury market above $5 million has seen less than half the volume of 2021, but mid-tier homes in districts like Bernal Heights and Glen Park are now trading at an average of $1,140 per square foot, up 9% year-over-year. Redfin data reports that 38% of city listings in June received multiple offers, compared to nearly 70% during 2021’s wildest months. “Balanced” is the word repeatedly surfacing in local brokerage notes.

Looking ahead, buyers—and sellers—face a recognizable but less manic market. For those who sat out the 2021 fireworks (and subsequent hangover), patience now has its rewards: more options, less pressure, and a clearer sense of value. But with tech hiring beginning to heat up along Market Street and lending rates unlikely to fall sharply in the near future, most agents expect a slow upward grind. Homebuyers who can act decisively in neighborhoods like Dogpatch or the Inner Richmond may still find value, but a return to the breakneck bidding wars of 2021 looks like a distant memory.