San Francisco Home Prices Steady, Not Soaring: A 2026 Market Compared to the Wild 2021 Boom

San Francisco’s residential real estate prices have pulled even with their mid-pandemic high, but most buyers and agents say this market feels far removed from the breakneck surge of 2021. Last month’s median single-family sale price was $1.32 million—within 2% of June 2021’s all-time peak, yet signs of panic bidding, back-to-back offers, and cash-over-asking frenzies are noticeably absent from open houses and closing tables this July.

This shift matters because the post-COVID boom cycle rewrote all the usual patterns for the city’s buyers and sellers. Back in 2021, as the world eyed reopening, San Francisco’s market drew roving bands of tech returnees, day-one IPO millionaires, and families battling to get ahead of supposed looming interest rate hikes. Inventory flickered on and off the market within 48 hours; Redfin ranked SOMA and the Mission among the most competitive zip codes in the U.S. Fast-forward to July 2026, and while demand is strong in neighborhoods like Pacific Heights and the up-and-coming Dogpatch, the pace is measured—and powered less by FOMO than by a steady tech jobs recovery and stable financing options.

From 2021 FOMO to 2026 Rationality

"You couldn’t even finish a coffee across from Lafayette Park without losing out on a listing in 2021," said a longtime Compass agent, referring to a string of ultra-fast sales on Washington Street near Fillmore. These days, condo listings along Valencia Street and Potrero Hill’s newer conversions are getting more questions about deferred maintenance than about escalation clauses. Tech hiring is up—Meta’s Market Street expansion and OpenAI’s new lease in SoMa have brought hundreds of renters and buyers back into the fray—but even startup engineers now check inspection reports twice before diving in.

Open house attendance hasn’t vanished—especially in family-friendly Noe Valley or the Marina, where a three-bed on Chestnut Street closed for $2.15 million in June—or the Mission, with its pipeline of new condos near 24th and Shotwell. Still, buyers are far less likely to waive contingencies or put in offers $300,000 above the list price. "We’re seeing more traditional cycles: listings lag a few weeks, then sell at or near ask," said another agent familiar with inventory trends from Bernal Heights to the Richmond District.

Numbers Tell the Story

According to the San Francisco Association of Realtors, 257 single-family homes closed in June with a median price of $1.32 million—just shy of June 2021’s $1.34 million. However, average days on market have stretched to 29, more than double the 13-day average from five summers ago. The citywide condo median sits at $1.05 million, buoyed by resilient demand in South Beach and Hayes Valley. Mortgage rates, hovering at 5.75% for 30-year fixed loans as of July 1, are well above the sub-3% rates buyers were scrambling to lock in five years ago, but stable enough to keep the pipeline moving.

Inventory remains tight, though not historically low: the city reported 1,187 active listings as of July 3, compared to just 849 on the same date in 2021. Rental demand has picked up, with studios near Salesforce Park fetching over $3,000/month again, but there’s less investor-driven supply flipping hands compared to the boom.

For buyers and sellers alike, the climate favors patience over speed. Seasoned agents advise buyers to spend more time researching neighborhood comps and amenities—from redesigned parks in the Richmond, to arts programming at the Mission’s Community Music Center. Sellers, meanwhile, are advised to update listings with current energy-efficiency upgrades—not just to attract ESG-minded buyers, but to stand out among the broader citywide supply. The market’s fever is gone, replaced by a rational churn and a sense that, for now, both sides have time to think—at least until the next tech IPO cycle hits South Park.