San Francisco voters decide who funds housing, police, business tax changes.

San Francisco's next ballot cycle puts several consequential measures before voters, each one redistributing money, services, or risk in ways that land differently depending on where you live, what you earn, and whether you rent or own. The measures span public safety funding, affordable housing bonds, and changes to how the city taxes businesses. For residents trying to make sense of a dense voter guide, the core question on each measure is simple: what does it actually do to your neighborhood, your rent, or your tax bill?

The timing matters. City Controller Greg Wagner's office projected in its fiscal year 2025-26 budget analysis that San Francisco faces a structural deficit exceeding $800 million over the next two years, driven by slower-than-expected commercial real estate recovery in the downtown core and rising pension obligations. That squeeze is the backdrop against which voters are being asked to authorize new spending, restructure revenue, or both. General obligation bonds require a two-thirds supermajority to pass; most tax measures need a simple majority under current rules, though some dedicated special taxes still require two-thirds.

Housing Bonds and Police Staffing: The Trade-Offs in Plain Terms

A proposed affordable housing general obligation bond, if placed on the November ballot by the Board of Supervisors, would authorize borrowing in the range of $300 million to fund the construction and preservation of income-restricted units across the city. Property owners would see a small increase in their annual tax rate to service the debt, estimated by the Controller's office methodology at roughly $14 per $100,000 of assessed value per year. Renters in rent-controlled units would not pay the levy directly, but landlords in buildings without rent control could pass through a portion of tax increases. The projected benefit: hundreds of new or preserved units targeted at households earning between 30 and 80 percent of the Area Median Income, which in San Francisco currently sits at $130,600 for a family of four according to the 2025 HUD figures for the San Francisco metro area.

A separate public safety measure on the table would mandate minimum sworn officer staffing levels at the San Francisco Police Department, setting a floor of approximately 2,000 officers and requiring the city to fund recruiting and retention incentives to close a gap that, as of June 2026, stood at roughly 500 vacancies against authorized strength. The measure, backed by a coalition of small business groups in the Tenderloin and Mission districts, would lock in spending obligations regardless of future budget conditions. Fiscal analysts note that a staffing mandate of this kind could cost between $50 million and $80 million annually in additional personnel expenses, money that would need to come from the General Fund and could reduce discretionary spending on other departments including public health and recreation.

Business Tax Restructuring and What It Means for Workers

The most structurally significant measure under discussion is a proposed overhaul of San Francisco's gross receipts tax, which currently generates more than $900 million per year and funds roughly a quarter of the General Fund. The reform proposal would reduce tax rates for small and mid-sized employers with payroll under $7 million while raising effective rates on large financial services and technology firms. Proponents argue it would encourage small business retention in neighborhoods like the Outer Sunset and Excelsior, where retail vacancy has remained elevated since 2020. Critics, including some labor-aligned policy analysts, warn that changes to the large-employer rate structure could trigger corporate restructuring that reduces the number of high-wage jobs headquartered in the city.

What happens next depends on the Board of Supervisors' decisions on which measures qualify for the November 4, 2026 ballot, with the deadline for submission to the Department of Elections falling in early August. Residents can track the official measure language, independent fiscal analyses from the Controller, and the Civil Grand Jury's review process through the San Francisco Department of Elections website at sfelections.org. Each measure will carry an official fiscal impact statement, and the Controller is required by city charter to release an independent economic analysis before the ballot is certified. Voters who want to weigh in before measures are finalized still have time, as the Board of Supervisors holds public hearings through late July.