San Francisco's Upzoning Push Lands Far Short of London, Tokyo, and Vancouver This Week

The Board of Supervisors approved a modest expansion of the Housing Element Implementation Ordinance on Thursday, clearing new mid-rise allowances along 19th Avenue and portions of the Sunset District — but the 7-4 vote underscored just how cautiously San Francisco moves compared with cities that have ripped up their zoning maps wholesale. London's new strategic plan permits towers of up to 30 stories at nearly any station within 800 metres of the Elizabeth line. Tokyo has operated under a national default of permissive by-right zoning since 1919. Vancouver completed a city-wide upzone of all single-family parcels in September 2023. San Francisco, by contrast, still requires discretionary review on most projects above four stories.

The timing matters because the city faces a state-mandated deadline to permit 82,069 new units by 2031 under the sixth cycle Regional Housing Needs Allocation. As of June 30, the Planning Department's own tracker showed 11,240 units approved since January 2023 — roughly 14 percent of the target with five years remaining. Sacramento has signaled that cities failing to hit milestones risk losing highway and transit funding, a threat that carries particular weight given ongoing negotiations over the Central Subway's Phase 2 extension.

Where San Francisco Diverges

The core difference is process, not ambition. London's new Zones for Intensification, formalized in the 2025 update to the London Plan, assign density outcomes by geography and then step back. A developer in Stratford or Canary Wharf submits plans against a pre-set envelope and typically receives a decision within 13 weeks. In San Francisco, a six-unit building on Judah Street in the Inner Sunset can still trigger a Discretionary Review hearing if a neighbor files within 30 days, adding four to eight months and tens of thousands of dollars to a project.

Tokyo's system is even more permissive: twelve nationally standardized use zones cover the entire country, and residential areas allow commercial uses almost without restriction. That structural openness has kept average rents in Tokyo roughly flat in real terms for two decades despite population growth. San Francisco's median asking rent for a one-bedroom hit $3,040 in June, according to Apartment List data released this week, down from a 2022 peak but still among the highest in the United States.

The San Francisco Planning Department has been quietly working on a Yimby-backed proposal called the Neighborhood Infill Framework, which would create three density tiers keyed to proximity to Muni Metro stops and BART stations. Under the framework, parcels within a quarter-mile of stations including 24th Street Mission BART and West Portal Muni Metro would qualify for by-right approval of buildings up to six stories, stripping out most discretionary review triggers. The proposal is scheduled for a Planning Commission hearing in September.

What Comes Next

Opponents, including the Haight Ashbury Neighborhood Council and several Mission District tenant organizations, have already submitted letters arguing the framework sacrifices community input for developer speed. Their central objection is that by-right approval removes leverage to negotiate affordable units beyond state minimums — currently 15 percent on-site for projects using the density bonus law.

The state's Department of Housing and Community Development is conducting its annual compliance review of San Francisco's Housing Element in August. If the city's production numbers remain far below the RHNA pace, HCD can refer the case to the Attorney General's office, a step it took against Huntington Beach in 2023. That outcome — litigation, state override authority, and the political embarrassment of losing local zoning control — is the scenario pushing moderate supervisors toward the Infill Framework even as preservationist colleagues resist it.

For residents and builders alike, the practical reality is this: a developer who wants to put eight units on a lot near the Glen Park BART station still faces a process that Vancouver eliminated two years ago and that Tokyo never had in the first place. The September Planning Commission session will determine whether San Francisco begins to close that gap before the state closes it for them.