San Francisco's Infrastructure Overhaul: The Key Decisions That Will Define the Next Decade

San Francisco has committed $2.4 billion over the next five years to repair infrastructure that city engineers have flagged as critically deficient — but the money is only part of the problem. Who controls it, how quickly contracts get signed, and whether the city can avoid the project management failures that have plagued major public works here for the past 20 years are the questions that will determine whether this overhaul actually changes anything on the ground.

The stakes are unusually high right now. Federal infrastructure dollars allocated under the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure Law are hitting their disbursement deadlines, meaning San Francisco either spends its allocated share on approved projects by late 2027 or watches that funding cycle back to Washington. At the same time, the Department of Public Works has identified 73 lane-miles of streets rated below 30 on the Pavement Condition Index — a threshold engineers describe as requiring full reconstruction, not patching. The Mission District and the Tenderloin together account for more than a quarter of those failing blocks.

The Projects Already in Motion — and the Ones Stuck in Review

Three major efforts are either underway or past the point of cancellation. The Potrero Avenue reconstruction between Cesar Chavez Street and 25th Street entered its second phase in April, with the San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency and the SF Public Utilities Commission jointly managing a $67 million corridor redesign that includes replacing 100-year-old sewer mains running beneath the roadbed. The Central Subway, finally carrying passengers since 2023 after years of delays and cost overruns that pushed the final price to roughly $1.95 billion, now serves as the cautionary template that city budget analysts cite when reviewing any new capital proposal.

BART's Transbay Corridor Core Capacity program — the federally backed effort to increase train frequency through the tube connecting San Francisco and Oakland — is scheduled for a key Federal Transit Administration funding decision in the fourth quarter of 2026. BART officials have pegged the project at $3.5 billion and say it would allow trains to run every 90 seconds during peak hours, up from the current five-minute headways. If Washington approves the full Small Starts grant, construction could begin in 2028. If it doesn't, BART has no identified alternative funding source at that scale.

Muni's situation is more immediate. The agency's own fleet assessment, released in May, found that 38 percent of its light-rail vehicles have exceeded their 25-year design life. The agency is mid-negotiation on a contract with Siemens Mobility to replace 130 cars at an estimated cost of $890 million, but the Board of Supervisors has not yet voted to authorize the full contract. That vote is tentatively scheduled for September.

The Decisions That Cannot Wait

Beyond the big transit contracts, three infrastructure choices carry enormous downstream consequences and are expected to come before city leadership before the end of 2026. First, the SF Public Utilities Commission must decide whether to accelerate the replacement of lead service lines in the Bayview-Hunters Point neighborhood, where the agency's own testing identified elevated lead levels at 14 residential connections in 2025. The federal Lead and Copper Rule Improvements mandate full replacement by 2037, but advocacy groups are pressing for completion by 2030.

Second, the city's seismic retrofit program for Unreinforced Masonry Buildings — roughly 4,900 structures citywide, concentrated heavily in the Castro, the Haight, and the Richmond District — expires its mandatory compliance window in 2028. Fewer than 60 percent of owners subject to the order have submitted engineering plans, according to the Department of Building Inspection's June progress report. Fines for noncompliance have so far been minimal.

Third, the Board of Supervisors faces a decision on whether to consolidate capital project oversight under a single infrastructure czar, a proposal Mayor Daniel Lurie's office floated in March. Critics say the current fragmentation across DPW, SFMTA, SFPUC, and the Port of San Francisco is the single largest source of cost growth on multi-agency projects. Supporters of the status quo argue that consolidation would strip individual agencies of accountability. The Board's Budget and Finance Committee is expected to take up the question in August, and whatever they decide will shape how the $2.4 billion actually moves through the system.